I modelli matematici rappresentano lo strumento più potente a disposizione dell'idrogeologo e, più in generale, di chiunque debba comprendere e quantificare processi ambientali complessi.
La calibrazione e l'analisi dell'incertezza rappresentano passaggi obbligati il cui esito definisce la bontà dei risultati dell'intero processo.
Il corso ha l'obiettivo di dettagliare le modalità più avanzate e attuali per calibrare modelli delle acque sotterranee, avvalendosi dei codici di calcolo più diffusi e utilizzati dalla comunità degli idrogeologi.
Corso in fase di accreditamento dall'Ordine dei Geologi della Lombardia
Tipo Corso
Settore Ambiente, Urbanistica, Infrastrutture
Luogo Fondazione Ordine Ingegneri Milano
Regione Lombardia
Comune Milano
Provincia Milano
Indirizzo Viale A. Doria, 9
Responsabile Scientifico Ing. Carlo Carrettini
Organizzatore Ordine Ingegneri Provincia di Milano
Informazioni Richiedi Informazioni
Durata 30 ore
Frequenza minima 28 ore
Costo (IVA esclusa) 1100.00€ (980.00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
Costo iscritti Ordine Ingegneri Milano (IVA esclusa) 990.00€ (890.00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
Costo ECHN Member (IVA esclusa) 890,00€ (770,00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
Costo Student (Msc, PhD) (IVA esclusa) 890,00€ (770,00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
Costo IAH Member (IVA esclusa) 990,00€ (890,00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
Costo Iscritto Ordine Geologi Lombardia (IVA esclusa) 990,00€ (890,00€ fino al 03/08/2018)
CFP 30
Iscrizioni Aperte
lunedì, 24 settembre 2018
09:00 - 13:00
Course presentation
• Introduction of the course
• Who are you and why are you attending?

S1-2: Review of fundamental concepts
• Flow equation (where everything starts from)
• Pumping test interpretation (how can it help in a model?)
• Analysis and processing of hydrogeological dataset (to become sounding model targets)
• Semivariogram (exercise with Excel)
• Regionalization of field data (exercise)
• Finite difference solution (exercise with Excel)
• Introduction to MODFLOW-USG and the CVFD solution

lunedì, 24 settembre 2018
14:00- 18:00

S3: Case study – Numerically enhanced conceptual modelling

S4: Overview of calibration and uncertainty analysis using PEST
• Metrics of a “good model”
• What is calibration?
• Modelling for decision-making
• The need to assess risk
• What should be expected of a model and what should not be expected
• Overview of PEST capabilities
• Overview of PEST++ capabilities
• Some real-world examples

martedì, 25 settembre 2018
09:00 - 13:00
S1: Getting familiar with the command line
• The command line... why we still need it
• Windows settings to make things easier
• Execution of general tasks through the prompt line (exercise to check the proper settings of participants’ computers and do a little practice)
S2: Waiting for PEST... 
• Structure of some Modflow input/output files
• PEST input/output files
• Executable files... “Seek, and ye shall find”
• Hybrid use of PEST

martedì, 25 settembre 2018
14:00 - 18:00
S3: Traditional Parameter Estimation
• Well-posed inverse problem
• The Jacobian matrix – why it is needed and how to calculate it
• How to define an objective function
• How to reduce an objective function
• Observation weights
• Prior information
• Parameter transformations
• Post-calibration parameter uncertainty
• Some important PEST settings
• Serial PEST and Parallel PEST 
• Dealing with problematical models

S4: Workshop (GUI + cmd) PEST, BeoPEST and PEST_HP settings
A model is given, participants will have to set up PEST through the GUI, make a small change to the PEST control file and run PEST from the command line. Parameters to be calibrated will be hydraulic conductivity zones. The same PEST file will be run using BeoPEST in parallelized mode. Aim of the workshop is to make the participants feel comfortable with the command line, while doing useful tasks.

mercoledì, 26 settembre 2018
09:00 - 13:00
S1: Highly parameterized inversion
• Why do we need regularisation
• Subspace regularisation – singular value decomposition
• Tikhonov regularization
• Measurement and regularization objective functions
• Pilot points as a spatial parameterization device
• Optimal pilot point emplacement
• Pilot points and geostatistical regularization
• Covariance matrices as a regularization device
• Saving model runs with SVD-Assist
• Parameter identifiability
• The resolution matrix
S2: Calibration of groundwater models – some practicalities
• Steps to ensuring good finite-difference derivatives
• Detecting problematical finite-difference derivatives
• PEST groundwater utilities
• The PLPROC utility
• Defense against model defects
• Incorporating temporal and spatial differences into the objective function

mercoledì, 26 settembre 2018
14:00 - 18:00
S3 Case study with PP calibration
S4: Workshop (GUI + cmd): PEST Calibration with Pilot Points
In this workshop, participants will calibrate the model of the previous workshop using pilot points. PP will be added and modified through the GUI, and strategies for efficient use of pilot points in groundwater model calibration will be discussed. The calibration process will be accelerated by doing model runs in parallel using BeoPEST. Tikhonov regularisation, singular value decomposition and SVD-Assist will be demonstrated. 

giovedì, 27 settembre 2018
09:00 - 13:00
S1: Introduction to uncertainty analysis
• Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis
• Basic statistics – the variogram
• Multiple point geostatistics
• Some other modern geostatistical methodologies
• Predictive uncertainty and spatial parameterization detail
• Monte Carlo methods

S2: Calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis
• Statement of the problem
• Linear uncertainty analysis
• Nonlinear uncertainty analysis (calibration-constrained Monte Carlo)
• Null space Monte Carlo
• Ensemble Kalman smoother
• Direct hypothesis testing

giovedì, 27 settembre 2018
14:00 - 18:00
S3 Case study – application of uncertainty analysis

S4: Workshop (GUI + cmd) Uncertainty analysis with Null Space Monte Carlo
The calibrated model of the previous workshop will be used to generate a small number of realizations (i.e. 10 calibrated version of the model, but the same method would apply to 1000). Most of the uncertainty analysis will take place in the command line environment. The purpose of the exercise is to understand the importance of the uncertainty analysis, especially when the modelling is done to support decisions that must be informed about what is known and what is not known.

Apertura Iscrizioni18-07-2018 09:00
Termine Iscrizioni27-09-2018 18:00

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